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Trial predictions for August
By Garry Nicholson in Darley Dale, Derbys 15:00hrs 26/07/2012
Temperature: 23C Weather: Sun & Clouds
I am currently doing some ongoing research looking into the UK weather, studying past weather events and seasonal trends, then analysing various patterns looking for influencing factors upon our weather. There are some theories and ideas I am working on, with the intention of using these to highlight specific ‘watch periods’ for an increased likelihood of severe weather, or ‘interesting weather’.
So, as an initial trial, here are some of my suggested ideas for August. These are purely my own ideas and predictions testing out some theories. I will watch with interest to see how the weather story develops over the coming weeks, and will report back on the outcomes. Whatever the resulting weather, it will aid my research, so watch this space!
1st-8th August -
A mixed bag, some decent days, but unlikely to fully settle down. Generally westerly airflow with unsettled Atlantic air in place, bringing some warm days and sunny spells but with showers or longer periods of rain in the forecast.
8th-18th August -
Potentially very unsettled with violent thunderstorms
The whole period could threaten to be unsettled, but with these specific watch periods:
8th-11th -
The first period would be more likely to see low pressure centred over the UK, so problems could come from persistently heavy rainfall and locally heavy thunderstorms. Stronger winds during this period too more likely.
15th-18th -
The second of these periods would threaten to bring very humid and unstable air to southern Britain, so whilst temperatures may rise into the mid-high 20s, the thundery downpours triggered would be significant, with southern and south-western Britain seeming most vulnerable.
18th-25th August -
Chance for an improvement, but for how long? Greater chance for warm or hot weather in mid-late August, with the development of a southerly airflow, but all this may achieve is 3 fine days then (another) thunderstorm, as low pressure in the Atlantic would seem to be never too far away.
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