Current    Charts    Radar/Satellite    History   30-day   90-day
Your observations   Warnings   Floods   WeatherLIVE
Sailing     Aviation     Farming     Astronomy     Walking
Weather School     Personal forecasts     Books by Simon
Contact us    Wxweb for business     Who's Who

>> Simon's Weather Musings <<

Best to stick with old faithful
Follow the jet in 7-10 days time

By Simon Keeling in Wombourne, Staffs 11:00hrs  17/1/2012
Temperature: -1.8C    Weather: Cloudy & frosty


Almost every day I show you the 7-10 day mean of the 500mb flow from the PSU ewall site. Many of you have asked questions about the charts, so here's a quick run down as to what they show (and today is a good example to use).

1. Solid black lines are the height of the 500mb standard pressure surface. This is about 18,000ft up.

2. The actual height 9in metres or feet) of the 500mb surface varies on a day to day basis, becoming lower down when the air is colder, higher when it is warmer; hence higher heights indicate warm air, lower heights, colder air.

3. Where the solid black lines are closer together, the winds are stronger.

4. Winds flow along the height lines.

5. 500mb is chosen because is gives a good indication as to where the jet stream is (black lines close together), and also nicely shows troughs (u-shapes in the black lines) and ridges (n-shapes in the clack lines).

6. The PSU Ewall charts also show height anomalies - red where air is warmer than normal, blue where it is colder than normal.

7. The chart of the left of the PSU chart is the ECMWF, the one on the right is the GFS operational.

Okay hopefully that helps? As far as today is concerned above normal heights are shown southwest of the UK, below normal to the northwest. The result of this (between next Tuesday and Friday 27th) is a weak jet stream indicated across the Atlantic and into the UK. Follow the black lines back and note they originate in the eastern States and Canada, so conditions are likely to be chilly.

But with a relatively weak jet stream conditions are likely to be fairly unsettled in Scotland, perhaps more settled further south.

Both models are in good agreement, so that builds confidence in the forecast. More on the video.




>> Comments on this story <<
Simon Keeling from Wombourne said on 2012-01-17 05:07:00
A good starting point Jim is the Expert Charts section at www.weatheronline.co.uk

Jim Irvine from Aberdeenshire said on 2012-01-17 04:12:00
Very helpful as usual, Simon. It there anywhere on the net where these charts are available to us non-weathermen?

Val W from Birmingham said on 2012-01-17 03:23:00
That\'s really useful information, thanks Simon.


>> Add your comments below <<
Your name
Email (not shown in posting):
Location:
Your comment):

Security question: What colour is the sky? (the answer is b*l*u*e but remove the *'s)


>> Latest comments on this musing <<
[Scroll down to add your comment and see what others say]

Simon Keeling from Wombourne says...
A good starting point Jim is the Expert Charts section at www.weatheronline.co.uk

Jim Irvine from Aberdeenshire says...
Very helpful as usual, Simon. It there anywhere on the net where these charts are available to us non-weathermen?

Val W from Birmingham says...
That\'s really useful information, thanks Simon.




>> More of Simon's Weather Musings <<

Warmists change of tactics?
By Simon Keeling in Wombourne, Staffs 10:00 19/06/2013
'Out' those who question?

Severe, Extreme or Inconvenient?
By Simon Keeling in Wombourne, Staffs 10:00 18/06/2013
Let's have a meeting!

Central Europe roaster this week
By Simon Keeling in Wombourne, Staffs 13:40 16/06/2013
A taste of some hot summer weather

[click here for a full list of Simon's Musings]




>> Captain Bob's Dispatches <<

Month Ahead
By Captain Bob in Kingswinford 15:30 15/06/2013
Some fine spells, but rain too

Seasonal Outlook
By Captain Bob in Kingswinford 11:00 19/05/2013
July looks best

Month Ahead
By Captain Bob in Kingswinford 10:00 19/05/2013
Weather machine games

[click here for a full list of Captain Bob's Dispatches]




>> Around the webcams <<
Latest webcam pics (add yours)






>> Learning channel <<
Summer 2013 - Latest guidance




>> Forecast channel videos <<
Wednesday's Look Ahead video 19/6/13
Tuesday's Look Ahead 18/6/13
Monday's Look Ahead forecast 17/6/13
Sunday's Look Ahead video 16/6/13
Saturday's Look Ahead video 15/6/13