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>> Simon's Weather Musings <<
What do past years tell us?
Highlights from the analogues
By Simon Keeling in Wombourne 18:00hrs 14/2/2012
Temperature: 6.9C Weather: Spots of rain
I'm an old romantic you know...and whilst I await a Valentine's dinner to remember, I've been taking a look back to see how often what followed in the next 4-weeks would warm cupids heart, or freeze his harp off!
Using the similar years highlighted by the GFS Ensemble model (below) I've taken a look at the top 7-years that are forecast to be closest to this year in 8-days time. The reason for 7 is nothing more than a shortage of time to look at the rest (I do have some feelings you know!).
And the results are interesting, and they do back up the current predictions.
The first two week period following the date (so this would be around 22nd February to 6th March, of 7-days 5 years saw average or warm temperatures and 6 had average to dry rainfall conditions.
Certainly interesting to see this. Models are heading into near average temperatures and drier than normal weather into early March.
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