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>> Simon's Weather Musings <<

Chinese call a neutral winter
Average rain and temperatures

By Simon Keeling in Wombourne, Staffs 14:00hrs  26/6/12
Temperature: 16.1C    Weather: Rain


The latest forecast from the Chinese Met Agency is calling for a winter of averages.

The chart below is temperature anomalies December 2012 through February 2013 and you see how 'normal' conditions are predicted to be across Europe.

This is only one model though. Others (notably the Japanese) are leaning into the colder than normal scenario and that is still where our long range forecasts are heading.




>> Comments on this story <<
Gavin from Northants said on 2012-06-26 09:46:00
Thanks Simon, The BCC 500mbr heights suggest quite a lot of blocking to the north and east from Dec-Feb with a trough to our south-west; http://cmdp.ncc.cma.gov.cn/pred/cs/CS2012/CS201212_201302GLZ500L6.GIF That could be quite cold depending on how far south the jet stream is tracking. Personally I never really feel the global models get a proper handle on winter until around September at the earliest.


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Gavin from Northants says...
Thanks Simon, The BCC 500mbr heights suggest quite a lot of blocking to the north and east from Dec-Feb with a trough to our south-west; http://cmdp.ncc.cma.gov.cn/pred/cs/CS2012/CS201212_201302GLZ500L6.GIF That could be quite cold depending on how far south the jet stream is tracking. Personally I never really feel the global models get a proper handle on winter until around September at the earliest.




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