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>> Simon's Weather Musings <<

Midlands & Wales most at risk of snow
Probably slushy wet stuff at low levels

By Simon Keeling in Wombourne, Staffs 17:00hrs  15/12/2011
Temperature: 3.9C    Weather: Cold


Low pressure passing eastwards through the English Channel through tonight, taking some heavy periods of rain with it.

The focus is probably through the Midlands and Wales as cold air gets entrained into the system at upper levels. The precipitation will be heavy enough to cause temperatures to fall noticeably and this mean that the snow falling from the cloud stays as snow or sleet.

Wales and the southern Midlands are probably most at risk from snow. On hills there could be 5cm but slushy snow can't be ruled out at lower levels.

The chart below is the NAE rainfall forecast between midnight and 6am in the morning, and you can see that the model goes for around 7-10mm of rain in these areas.

The rainfall model at this distance is usually pretty reliable and so figures will be within this area.We say that 1mm of rain = 1cm of snow, but you have to remember that some will be falling as rain, and so if you take around 1/3 of this you end up nearer a more realistic figure.




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>> Garry's Notebook <<

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