(Updated by Noon each Monday)

ISSUED SATURDAY 8TH MARCH 2008

Unsettled overall but we should get some sunshine at Easter

The immediate short term forecasts indicate a mobile and unsettled period with ‘active’ Atlantic low pressure systems moving through the UK, wet and windy conditions affecting all areas.
The global models have recently shown a good deal of variability in their longer term predictions although they have indicated some recovery of pressure just prior to the Easter period in line with our previous patterns. However confidence is not high.
Our forecast patterns still lean more towards anticyclonic influences during the middle period of March, the uncertainty in the forecast lying as to where pressure will build. The situation will need to be monitored to ensure confidence in the pattern is not eroded further.
The pattern indicates that high pressure will be in control just prior to Easter and many areas should see a settled start to the holiday, although unsettled conditions will be eroding the fine weather from the west and north. Rain and showers should be affecting all areas by Bank Holiday Monday, the remainder of March is also then expected to be rather changeable cool and unsettled.
April is likely to begin with pressure building across the UK although a change to unsettled conditions is likely through the second we with rain or showers for all areas, this rather mixed regime extending into the middle of the month.

*15/03 – 21/03*
High pressure in control through the beginning of the period with a good deal of fine weather on offer, perhaps on the cool side but with light winds and sunny spells it shouldn’t be feeling too bad. Some frost overnight with patchy mist or fog to clear away through the early morning, largely dry save for scattered coastal showers. Through the latter stages of the week it turns more unsettled from the north and west with cloud and stronger winds extending through all areas. Showers or longer spells of rain will affect all areas, heaviest in the north and west at first, this then moving south and east.

*22/03 – 28/03*
Perhaps some residual settled conditions across the south and east early on the period, the general theme is then for a slippage to unsettled and rather cool conditions with showers or longer spells of rain. There is at this stage little to indicate any recovery in pressure through the early part of the period the likelihood is for continued unsettled, mainly west to north-westerly, Atlantic driven influences. Bands of rain and showers will be moving through all areas from the west on a rather stiff westerly breeze, blustery heavy showers some thundery at times and chilly enough for these to be wintry over higher ground in the north.

*9/03 – 04/04*
Although generally unsettled to begin the period with further spells of rain or showers, there are indications here of a change in the pattern as high pressure begins to build initially to the south and southeast, the southern half of the UK therefore seeing fewer showers and lengthier spells of sunshine. Through the period a trend to drier and settled conditions is expected across the whole country as a large and slow moving anticyclone settles over the UK. Becoming fine through most areas with some lengthy sunny spells and generally light to variable winds. Some overnight mist and fog along with localised inland frost although this will readily clear through the morning to produce some pleasant early spring conditions.

*05/04 – 11/04*
High pressure will continue to control the pattern through the early part of the period with the south and east of the UK remaining spring-like and quite pleasant. To the west and north however the settled and fine conditions will be eroded away as Atlantic low pressure systems throw cloud and rain in from the west, becoming windy and cooler here too. Cloud and rain in the north and west will extend south and east across remaining areas of the UK through the middle part of the period. Winds will be increasing across the north and west with gales in exposed places, all areas likely to rather cool and unsettled by the end of the period.

*12/04 – 16/04*
Low pressure is likely to be dominating the pattern through this period, becoming slow moving and complex generating showers or lengthy spells of rain in most areas. It is also likely to be rather cool and windy for much of the time.