30 DAY UK & IRELAND FORECAST
Below is the main headline of our 30 day forecast. We issued detailed forecasts to 6 months in
advance for any location in Europe. Forecasts are verified to ensure accuracy and are produced
by our climatologists using computer model data, climatological normals and analogous techniques.
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Issued: Saturday 4th August 2012
Duty forecaster: Captain Bob & Simon Keeling
‘Summers swansong’ is likely to be brief and in the words of Porky Pig ‘Th- th-th that’s all folks’!
In the short term we may be on track for one more burst of summer as pressure rises and the pattern delivers at least a few days of warmth and humidity, thereafter it looks as if summer 2012 may well revert to type with further low pressure and characteristic showers or longer spells of rain through the bulk of what remains August.
During the final week of what is meteorologically speaking ‘summer’ pressures may rise across southern Britain, so the prospect here of somewhat drier and warmer weather establishing, whilst the northern half of the UK sees a light westerly flow establishing characterised by patchy cloud, sunny breaks and scattered showery activity or mainly light rain in the extreme north and northwest.
September and the arrival of autumn sees southern Britain holding on to high pressure with rather more unsettled weather moving into northern areas, perhaps wet and windy at times and rather cool. Into the middle of September high pressure may take hold for a time, so a taste of pleasant autumnal weather for all areas, chilly overnight with mist and patchy fog developing, good spells of sunshine by day.
The hint that later period that high pressure pulls back into the mid-Atlantic region, the UK becoming much cooler with heavy showers developing in a generally northerly flow.
Through this short term period, showers will begin to fade as pressures begin to rise generally across the UK with most areas becoming warmer and drier for a time. High pressure drifting across Britain should ensure that most of us see at least a few days of drier and increasingly warmer weather, becoming locally hot perhaps for a time, this warmth and rising humidity levels are likely to trigger some beefy showers later in the period, these potentially thundery and local downpours.
Late in this forecast period high pressure looks as if it’ll get shunted out of the way by the influence of Atlantic low pressure, which will be throwing cloudier conditions and more organised areas of showers or rain into western Britain where it’ll become cooler and fresher.
*14/08/2010 ...... 26/08/2012*
Summer 2012 reverts to type here by the look of it, with low pressure from off the Atlantic becoming the dominant feature across or close to the UK, becoming slow moving at times so little prospect of a return of any lengthy dry or settled conditions.
All areas are likely to see showers at least, these perhaps ‘ganging’ together into more organised areas of rain at times, some pleasantly warm sunshine between but mainly unsettled to say the least. Where cloud and showers are persistent it is sadly going to be feeling relatively cool for high summer.
As the forecast period closes, pressure may well rise to the southwest with a ridge extending across southern Britain, here there’s the prospect of drier and warmer weather establishing with some good lengthy spells of sunshine. The north of the UK is however still likely to be affected by showers or patchy rain, cloud and westerly breeze from off the Atlantic brought in on a mainly westerly breeze.
*27/08/2012 ...... 08/09/2012*
The pattern here may well shift in emphasis towards something with a higher potential for anticyclonic influences widely across the UK, low pressure to the north moving away and a large anticyclone developing over the UK.
Any remaining northern showers easing and pressure rises, all areas becoming settled and dry with pleasantly warm sunshine by day with just broken cloud and light to variable winds, overnight it’ll be chilly, the first morning shivers of autumn with heavy dews, mist and patchy fog quite widespread through central Britain.
*09/09/2012 ...... 15/09/2012 *
High pressure is expected to drift westward to take up station in the central or mid-Atlantic, this redistribution coupled with lower pressure to the east or northeast will bring quite a change. All areas becoming markedly much cooler with heavy showers moving south and east through all areas on a stiff northerly to north-westerly breeze.
Simon & Capn Bob