(Updated by 1st of each month)

Issued: Sunday 31st January 2010

When will this interminably and seemingly long winter end, I ask myself? The patterns suggest we’ve a way to go just yet, it’ll be a slow warm up but have faith; although it’ll be a slow affair we’ll certainly appreciate any spring warmth when and if it arrives!

This winters patterns appears to have been dominated and controlled by a very large, stubbornly persistent and ‘immoveable’ block of cold continental arctic air sitting to the east of the British Isles. We have all experienced the effects of this air mass from time to time in varying degrees of severity and persistence and we do still appear to have some way to go yet before its influence is eroded and a major pattern shift takes place, winter will return in various guises over the next forecast period.
High pressure and cold air looks persistently entrenched over the near continent this fending off any major incursion of milder Atlantic systems, these mainly affecting the fringes of western Britain and Europe. The influence of high pressure looks set to increase through the middle of the month the weather settling in a rather cold perhaps easterly dominated flow, with low pressure desperately attempting to dislodge the cold air, therefore let battle commence.
Initially the cold air will be the victor; however I have a hunch that during the latter stages of February we could see a shift to a west to south-westerly flow pushing through western Britain this then pilling its way across remaining areas. As the month changes once again so does the pattern with high pressure building back as a large feature conditions settling across all areas, chilly on the whole overnight although temperatures responding to increasing spring sunshine by day.

*06/02/10 – 12/02/10*
An east to west divide may open up here in response to persistent high pressure and cold feed of continental air from the southeast and less cold Atlantic conditions to the west brought about on lax southerly low pressure flow.
Western Britain may see some patchy cloud and outbreaks of light rain from time to time whilst the east remains mainly settled and dry with brighter spells, chilly through central and eastern areas with overnight frost, scattered wintry shower at times.
A general countrywide rise in pressure is expected through the middle of the period with a ridge extending into the UK from the east, conditions settling everywhere scattered wintry showers affecting the east but generally dry although remaining cold.

*13/02/10 – 19/02/10*
High pressure over the UK and to the east looks likely to remain as large and persistent block to the Atlantic systems attempting to dislodge the cold but settled conditions; initially the situation looks rather static. However there are signs that the reign of high pressure may be coming to a conclusion during this period as the influence continental anticyclone is eroded from the west by low pressure.
A rather ‘messy’ pattern is indicated to be taking place through the latter stages of this period with a wintry transition eventually giving way to less cold, cloudy and windy weather extending from the west and southwest, the mitigating effects of the Atlantic air perhaps however not appreciated just yet. Low pressure perhaps deflected southward for a time a cold eastern flow across southern Britain.
The ‘damage’ to the block looks to have now been sufficient to allow the next Atlantic system in the queue to make progress right across the UK, a mix of sleet and snow ahead of milder air crossing all areas, rather windy and feeling cool for a time but temperatures recovering later.

*20/02/10 – 26/02/10*
If the pattern proves to be correct then it’ll be ‘all change’ here as the flow should be dominated by quite a strong south-westerly driven by low pressure to the west or northwest and higher pressure over central Europe, all areas much milder.
Milder Atlantic conditions come with a price, this mainly at the expense of any brightness and dry weather, which will probably be reserved for sheltered south-eastern and eastern Britain, south-western, western and north-western areas likely to see outbreaks of rain from time to time and a rather strong breeze.
The latter stages of the period looks likely to remain rather unsettled everywhere with outbreaks of rain but generally on the mild side for most areas, the hint perhaps of colder air tucking back into the north with wintry showers for a time.

*27/02/10 – 05/03/10*
The pattern changes here once more as pressure rise and a large anticyclone settles over the UK, showers should die away and winds fall light across all areas.
By day we’ll be chasing areas of cloud, temperatures should respond to increasing levels of sunshine and it’ll be feeling more ‘spring-like’ perhaps in sheltered areas, however overnight frosts will be widespread and quite sharp.
There is the hint that for a time high may drift westward, allowing a noticeably colder northerly flow to establish with wintry showers appearing once more over higher ground and exposed areas, bright but chilly through remaining areas.

*06/03/10 – 10/03/10*
High pressure should slowly edge back east or south-eastward across the country, winds falling lighter once more, so perhaps not feeling as chilly as the effects of spring sunshine are felt.
The southern half of the UK should remain mainly settled and dry as high pressure drifts south, northern Britain perhaps becoming cloudier with patchy rain as a light westerly to south-westerly establishes around the northern flank.